Verra Mobility - Q4 2025

Transcript

Operator (participant)

Good afternoon, ladies and gentlemen, and welcome to Verra Mobility's fourth quarter and year-end 2025 earnings conference call. My name is Michelle. I will be your conference operator today. At this time, all participants are in a listen-only mode. After the speaker's presentation, there will be a question-and-answer session. To ask a question during the session, you will need to press star 11 on your telephone. You will hear an automated message advising your hand is raised. To withdraw your question, please press star one one again. Please be advised that today's conference is being recorded. I would like to turn the presentation over now to your host for today's call, Mark Zindler, Vice President of Investor Relations for Verra Mobility. Please go ahead, Mr. Zindler.

Mark Zindler (VP of Investor Relations)

Thank you. Good afternoon, and welcome to Verra Mobility's fourth quarter and full year 2025 earnings call. Today, we'll be discussing the results announced in our press release, issued after the market closed, along with our earnings presentation, which is available on the investor relations section of our website at ir.verramobility.com. With me on the call are David Roberts, Verra Mobility's Chief Executive Officer, and Craig Conti, our Chief Financial Officer. David will begin with prepared remarks, followed by Craig, and then we'll open up the call for Q&A. Management may make forward-looking statements during the call regarding future events and expectations, anticipated future trends, and the anticipated future performance of the company. We caution you that such statements are not guarantees of future performance and involve risks and uncertainties that are difficult to predict.

Actual results may differ materially from those projected in the forward-looking statements due to a variety of risk factors. These factors are described in our SEC filings. Please refer to our earnings press release and investor presentation for our cautionary note on forward-looking statements. Any forward-looking statements that we make on this call are based on our beliefs and assumptions today, and we do not undertake any obligation to update forward-looking statements. Finally, during today's call, we'll refer to certain non-GAAP financial measures. A reconciliation of these non-GAAP measures to the most directly comparable GAAP measure is included in our earnings release, quarterly earnings presentation, and investor presentation, all of which can be found on our website at ir.verramobility.com. With that, I'll turn the call over to David.

David Roberts (CEO)

Thank you, Mark. Thanks everyone for joining us. We closed 2025 with strong execution and momentum across our three business segments. Total revenue for the fourth quarter increased 16% from the fourth quarter of 2024, exceeding our internal expectations, while adjusted EBITDA and adjusted EPS were generally in line with our internal expectations. Looking ahead to 2026 and beyond, we are executing against a focused value creation strategy designed to strengthen our core, enhance profitability, and position Verra Mobility for durable long-term growth. In the near term, we are driving operational discipline, sharpening our portfolio focus, and anticipate expanding margins in 2027 and beyond. We are allocating capital and prioritizing resources against the highest return opportunities. Our priorities are clear: deliver predictable, profitable growth while strengthening margin performance over the long term.

At the same time, we are investing with intent to extend our leadership and unlock long-term value. We are modernizing our technology platforms, including advancing Mosaic, our secure, cloud-based, end-to-end automated enforcement solution in Government Solutions, and accelerating development of our connected vehicle platform in Commercial Services. The future of mobility is safe, smart, and connected. Cities and fleets are moving in that direction, and we are building the capabilities to lead that transition. These investments are disciplined, aligned with customer demand, and designed to drive durable competitive advantage and sustained shareholder value. Before I transition to our operating results, I'll start with an update on our automated photo enforcement contract with the city, excuse me, with New York City Department of Transportation. I'm pleased to report that we signed and registered our contract at the end of December 2025.

The total contract value now stands at $998 million over a five-year period and includes an option for a five-year renewal. Under our then existing contract with New York City Department of Transportation, we generated $22 million of revenue attributable to the red light camera installations in the fourth quarter of 2025, of which approximately $14 million was installation services revenue and about $8 million was product revenue. I'll move on to a macro view of each of our segments, starting with Government Solutions, which we consider our primary value creation engine due to the expanding addressable market and our competitive positioning. We are continuing to deliver strong growth and high win rates. We are poised for margin expansion in 2027 and beyond via the deployment of the Mosaic platform to support the event processing requirements of our global enforcement programs.

Starting with growth and high win rates in the fourth quarter of 2025, Government Solutions total revenue increased 25% over the fourth quarter of 2024, driven primarily by the New York City red light expansion. Additionally, we entered into bookings of about $23 million of incremental ARR based on a full run rate, bringing the full year 2025 total to about $64 million in bookings. Notable fourth quarter bookings include a school zone speed program in Orlando, Florida, a red light enforcement program in Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania, and a speed enforcement program across the state of Hawaii. These recent wins reinforce our structural advantage serving cities and public sector partners.

Moreover, our adjustable market in the U.S. has expanded by approximately $365 million due to new enabling legislation over the past three years, with the potential to expand to about $500 million if California passes additional enabling legislation for the statewide deployment of speed enforcement. That said, we recognize there continues to be legislative activity and ongoing public debate about automated enforcement programs, including new state and local laws enabling speed and stop arm camera programs, and ongoing discussion over the role of automated tools in traffic safety. We remain confident in our business, given the wide body of evidence showing these systems successfully change driver behavior and improve safety. Speed cameras contribute to significant declines in violations, as well as a 14% reduction in crashes in major cities.

National safety authorities, including the United States Department of Transportation, Federal Highway Administration, and the National Highway Traffic Safety Administration, recognize that automated speed enforcement is a proven safety countermeasure that can reduce fatalities and serious injuries by meaningful margins. Moreover, the vast majority of automated enforcement programs are cost-neutral to our customers, as we incur the cost of the cameras and installation costs in most deployments, and remaining cash outlays are paid for via self-funding mechanisms. We also prioritize data privacy, compliance, and transparency in every implementation, and we will continue partnering with local authorities to create safer streets and better outcomes for the communities with which we serve. Our School Bus Stop Arm Safety program is a standout example. Clear safety outcomes, coupled with strong customer adoption and durable long-term demand, as well as public acceptance.

In fact, we recently shared the results of a consumer survey we conducted late last year, which showed 82% of respondents supported safety cameras to monitor and penalize drivers who illegally pass stopped school buses, and 70% of respondents favor automated enforcement in school zones. Automated enforcement remains a core catalyst for driver safety, which continues to be a top public priority. Next, I will turn to our Parking Solutions business, or T2 Systems. In summary, T2 is stable, improving, and being invested in thoughtfully. Fourth quarter total revenue increased 5% over the prior year quarter, in line with our internal expectations. In 2025, T2 performed in line with its internal plan, along with an improving outlook.

We are seeing early signs of momentum, primarily in the context of decreasing customer churn, while growth is primarily driven by SaaS bookings and investment in the transaction-based business area. Our operational focus is twofold: improving utilization and monetization of our SaaS and transaction-based revenue model, coupled with disciplined, self-funded growth. Moving on to Commercial Services, fourth quarter revenue and segment profit increased about 10% and 7%, respectively, over the prior year period. Rental car or RAC tolling increased 16% over the prior year period, driven by increased travel volume and product adoption, as well as higher tolling activity compared to the fourth quarter of last year.

The growth in RAC tolling was partially offset by a decline in fleet management revenue of about 8% compared to the fourth quarter of 2024, due to the prior period customer churn we had discussed in our second quarter earnings call. Strategically, Commercial Services remains a durable cash generative business with clear competitive advantage. While the operating environment is more normalized relative to recent years, we believe that the fundamentals of the business remain solid. For 2026, we expect mid-single-digit revenue growth. We expect TSA volumes to grow modestly compared to 2025 levels, and FMC revenue is expected to grow mid-single digits, reflecting the impact of prior year period churn in the first half of 2025. Importantly, the segment continues to generate significant free cash flow to support reinvestment and capital return.

While long-term growth expectations are more moderate than prior outlooks, we see a clear and achievable path to sustained mid-single-digit growth. The drivers remain balanced and resilient, roughly one-third from travel volume growth, one-third from structural secular tailwinds, and one-third from focused growth initiatives that expand our value proposition. We're particularly excited about the future of connected payments through our partnership with Stellantis, which we believe will improve the driving experience and simplify in-vehicle payment processes. In the near term, especially over the next two years, we are taking a more cautious view due to softer anticipated travel volumes, reduced European travel to the United States, and expected fleet reductions among our rental car customers. Should macro conditions improve and fleet levels recover faster than expected, there remains potential to perform above this baseline.

In Commercial Services, we are sharpening our execution, serving customers at their highest point of need, and reinforcing cost discipline and prioritizing profitability and cash generation. We're positioned to best deliver consistent, high-quality earnings over time. Moving on to capital deployment and portfolio focus. Our approach to capital deployment remains disciplined and clearly prioritized. First, we continue to allocate capital toward areas of the business where we see the strongest growth in returns, including programs like School Bus Stop Arm Enforcement, where demand, safety outcomes, and long-term economics are compelling. Second, we are actively evaluating M&A opportunities that can accelerate growth or advance our capabilities in key areas, along with safe, smart, and connected themes, with a strong focus on strategic fit and return on invested capital

Third, share repurchases remain an available tool within our capital allocation framework, and we have returned over $650 million to shareholders through buybacks over the past five years. Across all capital deployment decisions, we are sharpening our portfolio to maximize performance in businesses that are already growing and to improve returns on invested capital, allocating capital with greater focus and selectivity. We believe this discipline supports both near-term margin performance and long-term strategic flexibility. As we look ahead, particularly around AI and autonomous vehicles and the evolving fleet landscape. We're focused less on defining specific products today and more about the problem spaces where we believe we are structurally advantaged. As mobility becomes more autonomous, connected, and data-driven, cities and fleets alike will face fundamental changes in how safety, compliance, enforcement, governance, and transactions are managing.

Those are areas we're already operating at scale with trusted relationships. We're taking an intentional but very disciplined approach, building capabilities, working closely with cities and fleet operators, and investing in learning before committing significant capital. As mobility transitions from individually driven vehicles to software-directed vehicles, value accrues to the systems that enable safe, efficient, and compliant access to the road. These are exactly the environments in which Verra Mobility operates today, which we believe creates a long-term structural tailwind as autonomy continues to advance. In conjunction with these trends, we're expecting to increase R&D spending in these areas, and the financial guidance that Craig will discuss incorporates the spending. Craig, I'll turn it over to you to guide us through our financial results, capital deployment, and 2026 guidance

Craig Conti (CFO)

Thank you, David, and hello, everyone. We appreciate you joining us on the call today. Let's turn to slide four, which outlines the key financial measures for the consolidated business for the fourth quarter. Our Q4 revenue performance, which included 14% service revenue growth and 16% total revenue growth year-over-year, exceeded our internal expectations. Service revenue growth, which consists primarily of recurring revenue, was driven by the change order for the New York City Red Light Expansion program and service revenue growth outside of New York City in the Government Solutions business, as well as increased revenue from RAC tolling and European operations in the Commercial Services business. At the segment level, Government Solutions service revenue grew 21% year-over-year.

Commercial Services revenue increased by 10% over the prior year. Parking Solution, SaaS and services revenue increased 2% compared to the fourth quarter of 2024. Total product revenue was about $18 million for the quarter. Government Solutions contributed roughly $14 million, with $8 million coming from New York City red light expansion and $6 million from international product sales. T2 delivered about $4 million in product sales overall for the quarter. On the profitability side, our consolidated adjusted EBITDA for the quarter was $102 million, roughly flat compared to the same period last year, largely due to the investments made in New York City.

We reported net income of $19 million for the quarter. GAAP diluted EPS was $0.12 per share for the fourth quarter of 2025, compared to a loss of $0.41 per share for the prior year period. GAAP results included approximately $16 million of non-recurring expenses, about $6 million related to our fourth quarter debt refinancing and $10 million related to fixed asset write-down expenses due to our exit from Ontario, Canada. Adjusted EPS, which excludes amortization, stock-based compensation, and other non-recurring items, was $0.30 per share for the fourth quarter of this year, compared to $0.33 per share in the fourth quarter of 2024. The adjusted EPS decline was primarily driven by New York City readiness costs.

For the full year, we've reported net income of $137 billion, including a tax provision of $58 billion, representing a full year effective tax rate of about 30%. GAAP diluted EPS was $0.85 per share in 2025, compared to $0.19 in 2024. Full year 2025 adjusted EPS was $1.32 per share, compared to $1.23 per share in 2024. Cash flows provided by operating activities totaled $40 million, and we delivered $6 million of free cash flow for the quarter. Free cash flow was negatively impacted by the timing of cash collections. As of today's call, we have collected approximately $22 million that we originally anticipated collecting in fourth quarter 2025. Turning to slide 5.

We generated $416 million of adjusted EBITDA on approximately $979 million of revenue for the trailing 12 months, representing a 42% adjusted EBITDA margin. Additionally, we generated $137 million of free cash flow, or a 33% conversion of adjusted EBITDA over the trailing 12 months. Adjusted for the cash, adjusting for the cash in the first quarter of 2026 that we anticipated collecting in the fourth quarter of 2025, free cash flow conversion would have been greater than 38% in 2025. Next, I'll walk through the fourth quarter performance in each of our three business segments, beginning with Commercial Services on slide six. CS year-over-year revenue growth was 10% in the fourth quarter.

RAC tolling revenue increased 16%, or about $10 million, over the same period last year, driven by increased product adoption and tolling activity, which benefited from a 1% increase in U.S. travel volume over the prior year quarter. Our FMC business declined 8%, or about $1.6 million year-over-year, primarily driven by prior period customer churn. Our European operations contributed just shy of $1 billion of growth compared to the fourth quarter of 2024. Commercial Services segment profit increased 7% over the prior year, representing a 64% segment profit margin. The margin decline compared to the prior year quarter was largely driven by a modest increase in credit loss expense and one-time selling general and administrative costs. For the full year, Commercial Services generated $436 million of revenue, or 7% growth over last year.

Segment profit of $283 million resulted in margins of about 65%, an 85 basis point decline over the prior year, driven by ERP implementation costs and modestly increased credit loss expense. Turning to Slide seven. Government Solutions saw strong revenue growth in the quarter, driven by $14 million of installation service for the new red light camera expansion in New York City, as well as 11% service growth outside of New York City. The growth was broad-based across all customer use cases, with particular strength in speed, bus lane, and school bus stop arm enforcement programs. Total revenue grew 25% over the prior year quarter, benefiting from about $14 million in product sales, of which $8 million were generated from New York City red light camera sales and $6 million from international product sales.

In total, product sales increased by $6 million over the same period last year. Government Solutions segment profit was $31 million for the quarter, representing margins of approximately 24% compared to 34% in the prior year period. The reduction in margins versus prior year was primarily due to readiness investments made to prepare the company for execution on the New York City contract, as well as lower credit loss expense in the prior year quarter. For the full year, Government Solutions generated $461 million of total revenue, an 18% increase over 2024, driven primarily by New York City installation services revenue, as well as 10% service revenue growth outside of New York City. Segment profit was $122 million, which was roughly flat with prior year. Let's turn to Slide 8 for a view of the results of Parking Solutions.

We generated revenue of $21 million and segment profit of approximately $2 million for the quarter. SaaS and services sales increased 2% compared to the prior year, while product revenue increased 17%, or about $1 billion, compared to the fourth quarter of 2024. For the full year, Parking Solutions delivered revenue of $83 million, an increase of approximately 2% versus last year, and segment profit of $11 million. SaaS revenue grew 2% over 2024. Okay, let's turn to Slide nine for a view of the balance sheet and take a look at net leverage. Our gross debt balance at year-end was about $1 billion, of which approximately $690 million was floating rate debt. We ended the quarter with a net debt balance of $972 million, which was elevated sequentially due to fourth quarter share repurchases.

Net leverage landed at 2.3x, we've maintained significant liquidity with our recently expanded $150 million undrawn credit revolver. Let me give you some detail on our share repurchase plan. Our board had previously authorized the expansion of our existing buyback plan by an incremental $150 million, bringing the total authorization up to $250 million. In the fourth quarter, we purchased approximately 6 million shares for about $133 million through open market transactions. Let's switch gears and talk about the future. Turn to Slide 10 for a discussion on how we think 2026 is going to shape up.

We expect total revenue in the range of $1.02 billion-$1.03 billion, representing approximately 5% growth at the midpoint of guidance over 2025, consistent with the preliminary outlook we provided on our third quarter earnings call. We expect adjusted EBITDA in the range of $405 million-$415 million, or an adjusted EBITDA margin percent of about 40%, representing a 250 basis point decline compared to 2025, again, consistent with the preliminary outlook provided on our Q3 call. As we previously discussed, the combination of portfolio mix and the New York City renewal contract, partially offset by a year-over-year reduction in ERP implementation costs, are expected to drive the temporary reduction in margins.

We expect 2026 non-GAAP adjusted EPS to be in the range of $1.32-$1.38 per share, representing low single-digit growth over 2025, consistent with the outlook we provided on our Q3 earnings call. Lastly, free cash flow is expected to be in the range of $150 million-$160 million for 2026, representing a conversion rate in the high thirtieth percentile of adjusted EBITDA. We expect to spend approximately $125 million of CapEx in 2026, roughly flat with 2025. The vast majority will be spent in Government Solutions to implement newly awarded photo enforcement programs. Turning back to the adjusted EBITDA margin, let me provide a quick refresher on each of those key drivers. The portfolio mix is simply Government Solutions growing faster than Commercial Services.

This represents about 25 basis points of year-over-year decline at the total company level. Secondly, in Government Solutions, margins will be negatively impacted by service pricing changes established through the competitive re-procurement process for New York City and incremental operating costs associated with minority and women-owned subcontractor requirements under the renewal contract. These factors combine to represent about 250-300 basis points of margin decline at the total company level. Third, partially offsetting the first two drivers, we expect Commercial Services segment profit margins to expand 25-50 basis points due to volume leverage and the absence of 2025 ERP spending. Moving on to the segment level. In Commercial Services, we expect mid-single-digit revenue growth. We are modeling TSA volume growing about 100 basis points for the full year.

We're expecting FMC revenue to grow mid-single digits over the prior year, down in high single digits in the first half of the year due to the prior period churn and growing low double digits in the back half of the year due to the easier comps. The combined CS business, we expect the first quarter to be our lowest revenue-generating quarter, likely flat compared to the first quarter of 2025, followed by sequential revenue increases in the second and third quarters, and then a modest sequential revenue decline in the fourth. Adjusted EBITDA margins are expected to follow the same cadence as sequential revenue. Government Solutions is expected to generate the high end of mid-single-digit total revenue growth in 2026. There are a few components influencing this growth.

The expansion under the updated New York City contract is expected to drive $11 million service revenue growth. Non-New York City revenue is expected to grow 8% or roughly $20 million. In total, we expect GS service revenue to grow high single digits. Additionally, product revenue will be basically flat year-over-year, as New York City product sales will be offset by a decline in international product revenue. We expect GS margins to be down about 450-500 basis points compared to 2025, consistent with the outlook we provided on our Q3 earnings call. This is driven by the New York City renewal contract, specifically service pricing changes established through the competitive procurement process and the Minority and Women-Owned subcontractor requirements.

Margins are expected to ramp up over the course of the year, from mid-to-high teens in Q1 2026, as we incur the impact of the New York City service pricing change, up to the mid-20s by Q4 2026, fueled by volume, Mosaic cost savings, and school bus stop arm RMC fidelity. Before I move on to Parking Solutions, I'll provide a brief synopsis on Government Solutions' historical and anticipated future cost drivers. For the full year 2025, we absorbed approximately $15 million of nonrecurring operating expenses to support a combination of New York City readiness and Mosaic development costs. In 2026, we anticipate that the investment in Mosaic will be cost neutral, as remaining investment operating expenses will be offset by second half 2026 operating expense savings.

Starting in 2027 and driven primarily from the Mosaic implementation along with volume leverage, we expect to be in a position of operating expense savings of $10 million-$20 million per year relative to the 2026 run rate. Separate from the Mosaic implementation, we expect to incur approximately $22 million-$24 million of costs annually beginning in 2026, that we expect to be split amongst cost of service revenue and operating expense to support the New York City Minority and Women-Owned Business subcontractor requirements, as we discussed on our third quarter earnings call. For Parking Solutions, we expect to deliver mid-single-digit revenue growth over 2025 levels. We expect SaaS revenue to grow low single digits and subscription to professional services, along with product revenue, to grow high single digits. We expect Parking Solutions margins to be slightly accretive to 2025.

Before we close out today, I'd like to provide some perspective on how we expect 2026 revenue and earnings to pace out quarterly. For the company as a whole, we expect first quarter 2026 total revenue to be about flat compared to the first quarter of 2025, followed by high single-digit year-over-year growth in the second quarter, followed by mid-single-digit growth in the third and fourth quarters of 2026. We expect adjusted EBITDA margins to land in the mid-30% range in Q1, due to the factors I've discussed, and then trend up to the high 30s to the low 40s for the balance of the year, resulting in an expected 40% margin for the full year 2026. Other key assumptions supporting our adjusted EPS and free cash flow outlook can be found on slide 11. This concludes our prepared remarks.

Thank you for your time and attention today. At this time, I'd like to invite Michelle to open the line for any questions. Over to you, Michelle.

Operator (participant)

Thank you. As a reminder, to ask a question, please press star one one on your telephone and wait for your name to be announced, and to withdraw your question, please press star one one again. Our first question comes from Faiza Alwy with Deutsche Bank. Your line is open.

Faiza Alwy (Managing Director, US Company Research)

Yes. Hi, thank you so much. I guess first, just a follow-up for Craig on the quarterly cadence, that you mentioned. I think you said first quarter, you're expecting flat revenue, and then it kind of builds up from there. Would be really helpful just to address kind of what's driving that and what's going to drive the, you know, improving revenue through the course of the year.

Craig Conti (CFO)

Yeah, great. Well, thanks for the question, Faiza. Let me just recap at the beginning what the kind of the guide was. If we talk about it from a revenue perspective, to your question, we expect it to be flat, then we expect on a year-over-year basis to be up high single digits in Q2 standalone, and then mid-single digits in Q3 and Q4 standalone. That gets you to mid-single digits for the year. Then on the margin side, we expect to be, again, for the total company, in the first quarter, in the mid-30s, getting up around 40% in the second quarter and a little north of 40% in the third and fourth quarter to get you to the 40 for the year. And here's the why, I think myopically on the first quarter.

Some of it's the weather, some of it's some other things that are going on. I'll break it down by business. On the Commercial Services side, we expect Commercial Services to be relatively flat. A big piece of that is the FMC churn. This is what we talked about in the second quarter of last year. It's particularly acute in the first quarter because we had a strong first quarter in 2024. That churn is a big piece of it. The other piece in Commercial Services is the pacing of travel and some of the inclement weather that we've seen. I know you live in New York, Faiza, you probably know this outside your window that we've seen kind of for the last seven weeks.

If we think about today, the quarter-to-date PSA throughput went down about 80 basis points last night, just based on the Northeast kind of being snowed in. If I combine those two things, the pacing of the increase in travel year-over-year, which I expect to be back-end weighted anyway, I think being a little bit slower here, starting off the first quarter in the FMC churn, gets me to roughly flattish on the Commercial side of the house. Now, let me go to the Government side. Also flattish there. The first piece of this is the price normalization. That we talked about this in the competitive procurement that we did for the contract. That hits us starting on 1/1/2026.

We'd expected that to be offset by some volume, again, going back to inclement weather, we can't set concrete unless it's been above freezing for 24 hours. In New York City, we've had a lot more days underneath freezing than we anticipated at this point. I still think that all of that install volume is safely within 2026. It's just gonna be a little bit more bunched up in the back three quarters. If I look at FMC, the pricing, and then the weather, those three things kind of come together to give us a flattish Q1. That's my best view as of today, Faiza.

Faiza Alwy (Managing Director, US Company Research)

Understood. Makes sense. Thanks for that. Just wanted to ask about, you know, the political environment around automated photo traffic enforcement. I think, David, you touched on this just a little bit in your prepared commentary. I know there's been some, you know, noise coming out of D.C. and the Trump administration. Just curious, like, what you're seeing on the ground in terms of, you know, new RFPs coming out. Just would love to hear more, more perspective, your perspective around that.

David Roberts (CEO)

Yeah, great question. I think one point to start is, as they say, there's nothing new under the sun, and that includes any sort of comments in the press related to automated enforcement that's been going on for 18 years. That's something very normal. It has moments where it's a little higher volume, like it is right now. I would just point to the state legislatures that have opened up the $350 million of TAM that we talked about the last few years. I think that's where the market stands. I think we continue to be in a really good place.

I think because the industry has done a really good job of pivoting to very specific, what we call purpose-built use cases, in places like school zones and work zones and school buses, those are, what I would just consider, you know, quote, unquote, "more popular," and I think draw less, sort of feedback. Overall, I feel like we're in a good place. This is nothing that is new to Verra Mobility or to the industry, and it's something that we just handle as it comes.

Faiza Alwy (Managing Director, US Company Research)

All right, thank you.

Operator (participant)

Thank you. Our next question will come from Tomohiko Sano with JPMorgan. Your line's open.

Tomohiko Sano (Co-head of Japan Equity Research)

Hello, everyone.

Craig Conti (CFO)

Hey, Tomo.

Tomohiko Sano (Co-head of Japan Equity Research)

Thank you for taking my questions. Could you talk about with the new New York City contract finalized, would you be able to quantify the impacts of price normalization and MWBE requirements on margins? If you could discuss your expectations for the pace of margin normalization from 2027 award, please. Thank you.

Craig Conti (CFO)

Yeah, the best way, Tomo, I could think to answer that, I gotta be careful from a competitive standpoint, of course. If you compare the new contract with the old contract, right? As you know, Tomo, we've had this contract in some form or fashion for quite some time. This is the latest iteration, and that's significantly expanded. I like to talk about it in terms of margin dollars. There's a couple things going on in this contract. The first thing is there's three, several thousand camera expansion, okay? Depending on the use cases. That's margin dollars in this contract. There's also new scope in the contract, that we're doing things we didn't do before for the city. That's margin dollars into the contract.

There are things that we used to do, kind of call it at break even, that now we do at a slight margin, so that's margin dollars into the contract. You've got the price, which is the modernization, I would say, of the revenue per approach. As you combine all of those things over the life of this deal, which is a 10-year deal, five-year with a renewable term, so let's say five-year deal, you get to roughly even margin dollars. That's the way to think about it. The investment that Verra is making into the project, or what's causing that, and the $22 million-$24 million I mentioned in my script, that is us using the Minority and Women-Owned subcontractors in the state of New York.

The way to think about that's work that we used to do in-house, that now we're subcontracting out to those folks that are based in the five boroughs. That's the investment in the contract. Does that make sense from a margin standpoint?

Tomohiko Sano (Co-head of Japan Equity Research)

Yep, it's clear. Thank you. Just wanted to get a follow-up on the AI questions. From a long-term perspective, how do you evaluate the risk and opportunities that advances in AI present for your business model, including the potential for rental car companies to develop their own AI-driven solutions and your own efforts to differentiate and create the value through AI, please?

David Roberts (CEO)

I mean, I think, I don't think there's a public company CEO that wouldn't say, yes, AI is gonna have some impact on their business, so-

... some point. What I would say is, we're gonna be on offense on this, not on defense, which is where we've already deployed AI into some of the technology we've deployed today. We're using it regular in our software development. As I mentioned in the closing part of my remarks, we really feel that AI and autonomous vehicles create a really great lane of potential future growth for us. Specifically, but as you go back to your specific question is, the AI also, we still continue to work with tolling authorities and some technology that's probably a little less AI-oriented. We continue to find new ways to integrate with them, as well as we're always pushing on with our customers, how can we add more value? What are new products and services that we can deploy?

Craig Conti (CFO)

You see that in our connected vehicle platform, which I think is sort of where the next generation of tolling will occur, which is inside of a connected vehicle. It's still a ways away. I don't think it's anytime soon, but we've already made inroads with folks like Stellantis to help create that platform. I think we feel pretty good about where we sit today.

Tomohiko Sano (Co-head of Japan Equity Research)

Thank you. Very helpful.

Operator (participant)

Thank you. The next question is gonna come from Daniel Moore with CJS Securities. Your line's open.

Daniel Moore (Partner and Director of Research)

Yes, thanks for the color and thanks for the questions, David and Craig. Just wanted to ask on cash flow. I think your CapEx expectation is $125 million. The guidance includes $22 million of collections that kind of spilled over.

Craig Conti (CFO)

Yep

Daniel Moore (Partner and Director of Research)

... wondering kind of what that working capital embedded in the guidance and, you know, when we might get back to a more normalized level of conversions when you sort of factor that good guy in to, you know, that's helping the guidance in 2026.

Craig Conti (CFO)

Yeah, yeah. No, you bet. Yeah, great question. I would say that this is close to normal. Working capital, let me answer your question directly, is $20 million investment year-over-year. That, I think that's on slide 11, that'll be there to look at for your model later. That is what I always call a righteous use of working capital. The vast majority of that is as we grow our Commercial Services business, which is, we expect mid-single digit growth this year, that's more funds on deposit that we put with the 54+ toll authorities in the United States. As that business grows, working capital should always be a little bit more of a use.

I think as you pace that out and you picked out exactly the right, the right pieces, the reason why that $22 million that I got in 2026, that I expected in 2025, didn't push that number north, is because CapEx is a little higher than I thought. If we go back a couple quarters, I don't know if it was you that asked it, Dan, but someone did, said, "You know, what do you think about for 2026 CapEx?" The number I had was not as high as the $125 that we've got in the box and in the guide today. Had that number been the lower number I thought a few months ago, we would've had higher conversion. That's kind of the bad news on conversion.

The good news is, the reason why it's higher is because we continue to win on the Government Solutions side of the house. I'm sure you saw the Hawaii announcement that went out not too long ago, and we've got a few more in the late funnel that I can't quite talk about yet, that we expect to go here in the year. When I think about our Government Solutions business on a non-New York City basis, service revenue growing, high single digits approaching double digits, free cash flow conversion getting around 40% is probably the right level to look at.

Daniel Moore (Partner and Director of Research)

All right. That's helpful, Craig. You actually just touched on it, the Hawaii contract. Just talk a little bit about, you know, kind of the cadence of revenue, how you think about the ramp in that $160 million over the next few years.

Craig Conti (CFO)

Yeah, this is a big deployment in a small area. You'd think it'd go fast, but actually it's kind of the opposite. I expect to see this over the next several years. All right? This is typically, I'd say, 12-18 months. I think this one is probably more 36 months, maybe a little bit north of that. You know, we've got a pretty big geographical area to cover here, even though there's not a lot of landmass. It's very exciting win for us. Great partnership with the state. We're super pleased about it. It's gonna be a little slower on the rollout, but good news. Good news all around.

Daniel Moore (Partner and Director of Research)

All right. I'll stick back with the follow-ups. Thank you.

Craig Conti (CFO)

Thank you.

Operator (participant)

Thank you. As a reminder, to ask a question, please press star one one on your telephone. The next question comes from David Koning with Baird. Your line is open.

David Koning (Senior Research Analyst)

Yeah. Hey, guys. Thanks. Nice job. I guess my question is around the government business, ARR growth, the backlog, really good again. I guess my question is that better than you expected? Do you still feel like the 2027, 2028, 2029 expectations you gave for government revenue hold, the ones you gave last quarter, do those still hold, or are those even a little better now with some of the new signings?

Craig Conti (CFO)

Yeah, I would say. Thanks for the question, Dave. I would say hold. They still hold to what we talked about last time, and the one that we talked about last time specifically was does 2027 feel like, you know, double digits? I still see a path to that today. Maybe just one more level of detail on that. When we talked last quarter, and we gave that view out to 2028, I believe that we had non-New York City growing in the high single digits, which is from an organic perspective, which is exactly what we've got in the guide today. I'm a little closer to it, and I still am as confident as what I said at last quarter, that 2027 looks especially good.

David Koning (Senior Research Analyst)

Okay, thanks for that. As a follow-up, it sounds like you're gonna exit this year in the mid-20s margin within the Government segment. Is that a fair kind of starting point, you know, as we think in the out years, that we know you can get back to at least the mid-20s and hopefully get back to 30% over time?

David Roberts (CEO)

Yeah, I think we're gonna exit. I'm gonna consult my notes here. Give me one second to make sure. Yeah, we're gonna exit with GS, I think, a little lower than the mid-20s this year. We should be on the lower end of the 20s, which is, again, consistent with last quarter. Does that path still exist to get up to the mid to high 20s by 2028, going into 2029? The answer is yes. The path to that is volume leverage, and first of all, and second of all, is Mosaic.

David Koning (Senior Research Analyst)

All right. Sounds great, guys. Thank you.

Operator (participant)

Thank you.

David Roberts (CEO)

Thank you.

Operator (participant)

Our next question will come from James Faucette with Morgan Stanley. Your line is open.

Shefali Tamaskar (Equity Research Associate)

Hi, this is Shefali Tamaskar on for James. Thank you for taking my question. You gave some really helpful commentary around AI, specifically around increasing R&D and how you view AI as a lane for potential future growth. I wanted to better understand how you think about the trade-offs between building out technology related to AI internally versus partnering or potentially acquiring targets with AI capabilities.

David Roberts (CEO)

Yeah, great question. I think, the way I would describe my answer is it's both and not either/or. Meaning, we probably see that, relative to AI impacting transportation, it's gonna be showing up in autonomous vehicles, and there's gonna be a slightly slower bend toward that over the next decade or 2 as more autonomous fleets get proliferated, the legislation gets set. There's a lot to be worked out. There's both a arms and legs component of that, and then there's also an AI and software development side. I would say that we're open to partnering and have already started conversations. Actually, the Stellantis conversation is a really good one, where we're partnering with them. That's not explicitly AI, but it is software delivered in a connected vehicle case, which is good.

I would say we will be more than open to partnering with... First and foremost, we wanna find the use cases and the problems that are most impacting the current customers we have and really go hard at the hard at the hoop to solve those. We'll do that with our own capital, our own, you know, innovation. We can do it through potentially capabilities, through acquisition and/or partnership.

Shefali Tamaskar (Equity Research Associate)

Great. Thank you.

David Roberts (CEO)

Yeah.

Operator (participant)

Thank you. I am showing no further questions in the queue. This concludes today's conference call, and thank you for participating, and you may now disconnect.

David Roberts (CEO)

Thank you. Thank you.